In 2015-16, according to the forecasts from the provisional baccalauréat results, the career choices made in previous years and the initial information available for the year in progress, the number of students in higher education as a whole should increase by 1.6%. This corresponds to around 40,000 extra students in one year. Rates of entry into higher education should be slightly higher than the previous year, due to an increase in the number of general series baccalauréat holders.
By 2024, the number of baccalauréat holders should have increased significantly compared with 2014, as a result of demographic changes. If trends in terms of career choice, continuing studies and demographics persist, higher education should welcome over 2.81 million students in 2024, 335,000 more students than in 2014.
At the start of the 2014-15 academic year, according to forecasts based on the provisional results of the baccalauréat and the course choices seen in previous years, student numbers seemed set to increase by 1.6% across higher education as a whole. The number of students entering higher education also appears to be higher than last year, as a result of a significant increase in vocational baccalauréat holders and a slight rise in the rates of general and technological baccalauréat holders pursuing their studies.
Looking ahead to 2023, the number of general baccalauréat holders will probably increase significantly compared with 2013 across all series, mainly due to dynamic demographic growth.
As a result of the introduction of priority guidance measures, the rate of students continuing their studies has improved and there has been a rise in the number of vocational baccalauréat holders going into Advanced technician's sections (¦Section de technicien supérieur - ¦STS), and those from the technological series going into University technology institutes (¦Institut universitaire de technologie - ¦IUT).
If trends in terms of guidance, further studies and demographic growth were to continue, student numbers would increase by 9% between 2013 and 2023.
At the start of the 2013-14 academic year, according to forecasts based on the provisional results of the baccalauréat and the course choices seen in previous years, student numbers seemed set to increase by 1.5% across all higher education as a whole.
However, the numbers of students entering higher education remained the same as last year, while the number of baccalauréat holders decreased at the 2013 session. Looking ahead to 2022, the number of general baccalauréat holders will probably increase by 12.9% compared with 2012, while the number of technological baccalauréat holders seems set to decline by 3.2%. Numbers of students with a vocational baccalauréat will see an adjustment after the cyclical peak of 2012 (-8.6% between 2012 and 2022), but are likely to remain higher than in 2011 (+12.2%). Following this influx of general baccalauréat holders, if trends in terms of career guidance and continuing education were to continue, student numbers would increase by 8% in universities between 2012 and 2022, by 12.3% in classes preparing for admission to Grandes Écoles (¦Classe préparatoire aux grandes écoles - ¦CPGE), by 4.1% in Technological university institutes (Institut universitaire de technologie - IUT) and by 0.1% in the Advanced technician’s sections (Section de technicien supérieur - STS). Higher education could therefore include almost 2.6 million students in 2022, or 200,000 more than at the start of 2012.
At the start of the 2012-13 academic year, according to forecasts based on the provisional results of the baccalauréat and the course choices seen in previous years, student numbers seemed set to increase by 1.5% across higher education as a whole.
The number of students entering higher education increased, with this rise probably linked with the new influx of students with a vocational baccalauréat from the 2012 exam session. Looking ahead to 2021, the number of general baccalauréat holders will probably increase by 12.1% compared with 2011, while the number of technological baccalauréat holders seems set to decline by 9.6%. Numbers of students with a vocational baccalauréat will adjust after the cyclical peak of 2012 (-9.5% between 2012 and 2021), but are likely to remain higher than in 2011 (+9.7%). Following this influx of general baccalauréats, if trends in terms of career guidance and continuing education were to continue, student numbers would likely increase by 11% in universities between 2011 and 2021, 9.5% in classes preparing for admission to Grandes Écoles (Classe préparatoire aux grandes écoles - CPGE) and 4.5% in Technological university institutes (¦Institut universitaire de technologie - ¦IUT). The increase in Advanced technician’s sections (¦Section de technicien supérieur - ¦STS) will probably be more moderate (3.1%).
At the start of the 2011-12 academic year, according to forecasts based on the provisional results of the baccalauréat and the course choices seen in previous years, student numbers looked set to increase by 1.7% across all of higher education. Numbers of students entering were higher following the increase in the number of baccalauréat candidates at the 2011 session and the trend among the general and technological baccalauréat holders to pursue their studies at university. Looking ahead to 2020, numbers of general and technological baccalauréat holders are likely to increase by 2.3% compared with 2010. The reform of the vocational baccalauréat over three years, which was started in 2009, will probably cause a significant increase in the number of vocational baccalauréat holders (+70,000). After this influx, if the trends in terms of career guidance and continuing education were to continue, student numbers would rise between 2010 and 2020 by 10.1% in universities, by 1.2% in Technological university institutes (¦Institut universitaire de technologie - ¦IUT) and by 7.4% in classes preparing for admission to Grandes Écoles (¦Classe préparatoire aux grandes écoles - ¦CPGE). As vocational baccalauréat holders are more likely to continue their studies in Advanced technician’s sections (¦Section de technicien supérieur - ¦STS), numbers in this study track are also likely to rise by 6.8% between 2010 and 2020.
At the start of the 2010-11 academic year, according to forecasts based on the provisional results of the baccalauréat and the course choices seen in previous years, student numbers seemed set to increase by 1.4% across higher education as a whole. The number of students continuing their studies into 2010-11 was up in healthcare and law; there was a decrease in enrolments in first year at university, but all programmes combined, there was an overall increase in university student numbers (excluding University technology institutes (¦Institut universitaire de technologie - ¦IUT)). Looking ahead to 2019, there are expected to be 20,000 more enrolments in the four main study paths: universities, Advanced technician’s sections (¦Section de technicien supérieur - ¦STS), classes preparing for admission to Grandes Écoles (¦Classe préparatoire aux grandes écoles - ¦CPGE), and non-university engineering courses. Box: main assumptions used for forecasts.
