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Baccalauréat holders from the class of 2008 who went on to higher education: where are they four years later?
SIES A2.1
Of those students who passed their baccalauréat in 2008 and who went on to study in metropolitan France, 68% were still in higher education four years later, and 30% of these already had a higher education diploma. 32% were no longer in higher education and 14% had left without a diploma. In all, almost half of the class of 2008 who went on to higher education already had a diploma at the end of three years. 35% of those who enrolled in the first year of a Bachelor's degree course in 2008 obtained their degree after three years and 28% were in a Master's programme. In the short courses, 7 out of 10 students in University technology institutes (¦Institut universitaire de technologie - ¦IUT) obtained their diploma after two years, and the same for 6 out of 10 students in the Advanced technician’s sections (¦Section de technicien supérieur - ¦STS). In their fourth year, more than 7 out of 10 students from classes preparing for admission to Grandes Écoles (¦Classe préparatoire aux grandes écoles - ¦CPGE) were enrolled in a further education school doing a course at baccalauréat + 5 years study level, with students from the arts and humanities classes preferring universities. The proportion of students going on to post-baccalauréat schools and paramedical courses increased significantly over the last ten years.
Success and failure in first cycle programmes
SIES A2.1
The study path of students in first cycle programmes is marked by course changes and repeat years. In fact, only one in two students moves up directly from first year into the second year of the Bachelor's degree programme (one in four repeats the year and one in four changes course or gives up their higher education studies completely), while of those reaching the third year of the general Bachelor's degree programme, almost seven out of ten students obtain their diploma in just one year (nine out of ten for the vocational degree). For the University technology diploma delivered by the IUT (¦Diplôme universitaire de technologie - ¦DUT), the number of students moving into the second year is high, with seven out of ten students. The pass rate in second year is also high: almost nine students out of ten obtained their diploma at the 2011 session. In Advanced technician’s sections (¦Section de technicien supérieur - ¦STS), 85% of students move into second year. At the 2011 session, the pass rate for the Advanced technician diploma (¦Brevet de technicien supérieur - ¦BTS) was 72%, two points higher than in 2010. These rates vary depending on the type of students and the type of institution in which they are studying. However, overall, if the definition of failure in the first cycle of study is the fact of leaving higher education with no diploma, then the failure rate in France is around 19%, ten points below the OECD average.
Forecasts for student numbers in higher education for academic years 2013 to 2022
SIES A2.1
At the start of the 2013-14 academic year, according to forecasts based on the provisional results of the baccalauréat and the course choices seen in previous years, student numbers seemed set to increase by 1.5% across all higher education as a whole.
However, the numbers of students entering higher education remained the same as last year, while the number of baccalauréat holders decreased at the 2013 session. Looking ahead to 2022, the number of general baccalauréat holders will probably increase by 12.9% compared with 2012, while the number of technological baccalauréat holders seems set to decline by 3.2%. Numbers of students with a vocational baccalauréat will see an adjustment after the cyclical peak of 2012 (-8.6% between 2012 and 2022), but are likely to remain higher than in 2011 (+12.2%). Following this influx of general baccalauréat holders, if trends in terms of career guidance and continuing education were to continue, student numbers would increase by 8% in universities between 2012 and 2022, by 12.3% in classes preparing for admission to Grandes Écoles (¦Classe préparatoire aux grandes écoles - ¦CPGE), by 4.1% in Technological university institutes (Institut universitaire de technologie - IUT) and by 0.1% in the Advanced technician’s sections (Section de technicien supérieur - STS). Higher education could therefore include almost 2.6 million students in 2022, or 200,000 more than at the start of 2012.
Forecasts of student numbers in higher education for academic years 2012 to 2021
SIES A2.2
At the start of the 2012-13 academic year, according to forecasts based on the provisional results of the baccalauréat and the course choices seen in previous years, student numbers seemed set to increase by 1.5% across higher education as a whole.
The number of students entering higher education increased, with this rise probably linked with the new influx of students with a vocational baccalauréat from the 2012 exam session. Looking ahead to 2021, the number of general baccalauréat holders will probably increase by 12.1% compared with 2011, while the number of technological baccalauréat holders seems set to decline by 9.6%. Numbers of students with a vocational baccalauréat will adjust after the cyclical peak of 2012 (-9.5% between 2012 and 2021), but are likely to remain higher than in 2011 (+9.7%). Following this influx of general baccalauréats, if trends in terms of career guidance and continuing education were to continue, student numbers would likely increase by 11% in universities between 2011 and 2021, 9.5% in classes preparing for admission to Grandes Écoles (Classe préparatoire aux grandes écoles - CPGE) and 4.5% in Technological university institutes (¦Institut universitaire de technologie - ¦IUT). The increase in Advanced technician’s sections (¦Section de technicien supérieur - ¦STS) will probably be more moderate (3.1%).
Forecasts of student numbers in higher education for academic years 2011 to 2020
SIES A2.2
At the start of the 2011-12 academic year, according to forecasts based on the provisional results of the baccalauréat and the course choices seen in previous years, student numbers looked set to increase by 1.7% across all of higher education. Numbers of students entering were higher following the increase in the number of baccalauréat candidates at the 2011 session and the trend among the general and technological baccalauréat holders to pursue their studies at university. Looking ahead to 2020, numbers of general and technological baccalauréat holders are likely to increase by 2.3% compared with 2010. The reform of the vocational baccalauréat over three years, which was started in 2009, will probably cause a significant increase in the number of vocational baccalauréat holders (+70,000). After this influx, if the trends in terms of career guidance and continuing education were to continue, student numbers would rise between 2010 and 2020 by 10.1% in universities, by 1.2% in Technological university institutes (¦Institut universitaire de technologie - ¦IUT) and by 7.4% in classes preparing for admission to Grandes Écoles (¦Classe préparatoire aux grandes écoles - ¦CPGE). As vocational baccalauréat holders are more likely to continue their studies in Advanced technician’s sections (¦Section de technicien supérieur - ¦STS), numbers in this study track are also likely to rise by 6.8% between 2010 and 2020.
French Ministry of Higher education, and Research and Innovation